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Re: Trades

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Angels traded Michael Lorenzen to Yankees for Will Benson, Everson 0-Pereira, Yankees Draft Pick 4

Benson had a wonderful 2023 before struggling in 2024. He's still young and has tremendous upside, but he has to get the insane strikeout rate in check from last year. If it gets back to 2023 levels, there's still a player in there. Pereira is a very solid young prospect who has similar issues, but has tapped into his power at every level...and is due for a full MLB run if he can stay on the field. The 4th is a pick that exists.

This trade really was for two starters for me. It got me Lorenzen, who is coming off three straight solid seasons. He's still got some years ahead of him and all I need is a 5th starter. It also got me Wells. Wells got an ok sim last year, got off to a rocky start, and then went down for the year, unfortunately. He only got the brace, so he should be back at some point for the 2024 campaign...and he, Lorenzen, Waldron, Boyle, Elder, and Means give me solid if unspectacular depth at the back of my rotation.
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Cardinals traded Joe Musgrove, 2024 Draft Pick 138 to Yankees for 2024 Draft Pick 96, 2024 Draft Pick 65

It’s an already pretty thin draft so moving back twice is not ideal if I want to extract value out of it…

…but Musgrove had another good year, got a solid sim last year, and, while out a year, he should have enough time to be back for 2026 with a mid-rotation sim still. With a goal of being friskier in ‘25 and full on in ‘26, stashing Musgrove, Means, and Wells will put my rotation in great shape.
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Angels traded Byron Buxton, Ben 0-Lively, 2024 Draft Pick 150 to Yankees for Jake McCarthy, Victor Vodnik, Thayron 21-Liranzo, Cade 0-Smith, 2024 Draft Pick 100

Feels like my last big shot before the season gets rolling. Out the door goes a group of people I do quite like. McCarthy is a solid #3 outfielder on a contending team, but is tremendously streaky without a ton of pop. If he finds some consistency, he's a batting title contender. Smith is one of the top rhp bullpen arms in the game. He was utterly dominant this past season and still very young. Vodnik was not nearly as dominant, but took a good step in the right direction towards his ceiling as a closer in Colorado. Liranzo is a very fun, young catcher prospect that became a little bit extra for me after picking up Ruiz.

If Lively pitches for me this season, something has gone very, very wrong...but I'm intrigued to see how Cleveland continues to use him. He's a far more useful arm with another good MLB season. Buxton was clearly the get. While almost always injured, he returned to form as one of the top players in the game...again, when healthy. He stayed on the field for over 100 games (first time since 2017!!!), showed consistent pop in his bat, and still shows as an outstanding defender. I was a little nervous about my lineup with Jung as my #5 hitter (good pop, poor obp), so Buxton fits directly in the middle Carpenter/O'Neill to give the lineup a lot more balance. Still just 30 without a lot of games on his body, hope we see a long tail to his career.
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Re: Trades

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Phillies traded John Schreiber, Trey 21-Sweeney, Landen 21-Roupp, Agustin 0-Ramirez to Yankees for Miguel Amaya, Ryan Walker

Amaya is a solid prospect still, but the signing of Carson Kelly cast his future as a full-timer in doubt. Walker was the big get here. He's a lights out reliever still in his prime. He'll be a weapon for Nick out of the back of his pen, but dealt from an area of strength for me.

Roupp will become a swing pitcher for me. He's got a very solid SIM as a #4/#5 starter and weapon out of the pen. His 100 era+ comes with 13 starts, so a great asset for me as a starter or from the pen. Schreiber is a solid reliever who'll make up 90% of Walker. Sweeney is an excellent defender who has a real good shot of being the Tigers starting SS next year. He'll provide good cover for Volpe moving forward. Ramirez was an important get. He raises my ceiling at the catcher position as a bat first prospect...with a hell of a bat. He profiles as a middle of the order thumper, but development paths for catchers can be funky.
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Astros traded Michael Conforto, Davis Schneider to Yankees for Jhonkensy Noel, Josh 23-Knoth

Knoth is a '23 who can really spin it and held his own as an 18-year old who spend his whole season at A. Noel was the get here. He keeps moving up the ladder with the same MO...when he hits it, he crushes it. I'm a huge fan, I've had him a lot...but, ultimately, he's probably a DH and I've got the farm more consistent Carpenter there now.

Conforto and Schneider both just give me a ton of flexibility. Conforto adds a lefty bat with pop who might just be eligible and mostly usable at all 3 outfield spots. He's also still just 31 years old and signed with the Dodgers factory...so hope he might get a boost when used appropriately this year. Schneider is a player I love. He offers a lot more defensive versatility than Noel, but a bit less pop. He's still young and the Blue Jays clearly have confidence in him. The SIM is very usable and I'll hope for a bounce back.
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Yankees traded Tyler O'Neill, Brock 22-Porter to Padres for Christian Yelich, Nolan 23-McLean

O'Neill got a hell of a SIM. He's a good player, good fit on the Orioles, just needs to stay on the field. Porter has an unbelievable arm, just has no idea where it's going.

Yelich was awesome this year until he got hurt. Back cleaned up, should be back for the start of the season. Lukes' SIM gives me some breathing room if he goes out for a stretch. He's 33 and his skill set should age well, as long as his body does. The important get in the deal was McLean. He's moved his way into some top 100 lists, has an electric arm, and the Mets have done a great job with pitching talent recently. He either develops into a #2/#3 starter, or he's a great asset to strengthen me down the line.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Joe Mantiply, Luke 20-Little to Rockies for Edwin 21-Arroyo, Dylan 22-Lesko

Always fun to deal with Nate. He asked about relievers from my list and told him a couple I had available. He asked about another one. He gets two pretty dynamic lefties. Mantiply has been one of the best lefty relievers for a bit now and got another great sim. Little broke out last year and is clearly on the ascendency.

Dealing from depth, I get back a couple former top 100 lottery tickets. Arroyo was a rising true ss prospect who literally ran into labrum surgery last year and dropped off lists. Fully healthy heading into 2025, there's a hope we're buying low...but he's either got to jump his hit tool or power tool to get back on prospect radars...but he's also still just 21. Lesko was rising to the top of top 100 lists until he literally stopped throwing strikes. There has been no loss of stuff, just loss of the plate and still being just 21 and going to the Rays is definitely a step in the right direction...but he'll either be a great investment or released this time next year...no doubt about that.
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Re: Trades

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Mets traded Yanquiel 0-Fernandez to Yankees for Ezequiel Duran, Bryce Elder

Elder was a darling last year after a terrific run at the MLB level. He struggled in 2024 at the MLB level, but was also quite good at the AAA level and the sim responded by not docking him too much. Duran was similar. He had a solid 2023 but struggled in 2024 at the MLB level and, like Elder, was quite good at the AAA level so the sim didn't crush him too much. Both are still very young, both have MiLB and MLB success, both will have a chance in 2025 to put it right.

Speaking of crushing one level and tanking at another...Yanquiel Fernandez comes back my way. He was a scouting darling last year appearing on all the top 100 lists. You could also look at his AA success as a nice step forward for a 21 year old...but boy did he hit a wall in AAA. I got to watch him in Sugarland and he looked completely lost. All the raw skills and tools still exist and he was better in AA and deserves a shot to repeat the level before he's buried. If he becomes discerning at all, he's a superstar...however the list of people who learn what to swing is way shorter than the list of people who always make poor swing decisions.

After accumulating massive amounts of depth, I've been able to shave that depth to add a strong contingent of prospects who give me way more roster balance and flexibility moving forward.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Edwin 21-Arroyo, Kendall 23-George to Cardinals for Mike 23-Boeve, CJ 23-Kayfus

Arroyo was clearly the get for JP. He's an almost consensus top 100 prospect, and, even though he missed 2024, he's still widely appreciated. George is a plus fielder with double plus speed who makes good swing decisions.

Kayfus and Boeve are both fun hitters. Boeve had a phenomenal first season blowing through A+ to AA where he split time at 1b & 3b. While he can play 3b, he's going to have to tap into some more power to be a 1b. Kayfus isn't that far off that. He also blew through A+ to AA, and while he has some more power...he's 1b only. That power is going to have to show up for him to be a middle of the order, true 1b.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Josh Jung, Edgardo 0-Henriquez, Nolan 23-McLean, Edward 23-Lantigua to Braves for Ian Anderson, Nick Sandlin, Chase 22-Hampton, Walker 23-Martin

Josh Jung has all the potential in the world to be really good. He can hit, hit with power, is a full on 3b, and is still young...he just can't stay on the field consistently. 2025 is a massive year for him. He's got to stay healthy and prove consistency on the field. If he does, this will be a rough deal for me. Henriquez is a tremendously fun, young RP who the sim just decided to despise. Interesting to see where he starts 2025 and where he finishes. He has back of the bullpen potential. McLean jumped on to the backside of some top 100 lists this year. He has full on starter stuff, but he needs more innings and more polish. Lantigua is far away, but he's got some real juice in his bat.

Ian Anderson was the get on my end. I've been a massive fan for a while. He was one of the top prospects in the game and actually received ROY votes in two separate years before arm trouble hit. For someone coming off TJ, he was very good across multiple MiLB levels last year.. He has a fully healthy off-season behind him now and the Braves are penciling him into the rotation. Still just 26, I've got big hopes for him. Hampton was a similar get for me. Tremendous starters stuff with real helium onto top 100 lists before injury troubles in 2024. He's got a fully healthy off-season and I've got a ton of hope he can continue his ascent.

Sandlin has a solid SIM after a great 2024, had a good MiLB career, and the Jays traded for him to make an impact in the back of their pen. Walker Martin was someone I targeted last year in the draft. He has some of the best tools in baseball and was tearing up the back fields of spring ball before he got hurt. When he returned? He struck out ALL the time. When he wasn't striking out he was hitting the ball really hard and making good swing decisions...but woof on the strikeouts. If he cleans that up, the talent is insane.
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Rockies traded Hayden Wesneski, Jeral 0-Perez, Franco 21-Aleman, Zach 22-Maxwell, Demetrio 22-Crisantes to Yankees for Ben 0-Lively, Ryan Helsley, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Sandlin, Tim 0-Herrin

And...there goes my bullpen. Helsley and Herrin made up the spine of my pen (and are both super awesome), with Sandlin being a big part moving forward...and Lively a long arm that I figured would throw innings this year. And IKF, while unsexy, is the exact type of player you want on your team when injuries occur.

The big get for me coming back was Cristantes. He's an almost consensus top 100 pick with usable power, will stay on the dirt, but an absolutely elite hit tool. I really liked BA's '...he looks like he's always hitting off a tee,' comment. Aleman and Maxwell are less usable this year than what went out the door, but they are two of the elite, young MiLB arms in the game. Wesneski will be Lively-lite for me, with the upside that he'll probably get a full run at the Astros starting rotation. Perez was an arrow up prospect this year who has dynamic bat speed and just needs to find consistency.
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Cardinals traded Angel 0-Chivilli to Yankees for Caleb 21-Durbin

Durbin can really hit. He was targeted by the Brewers in the Williams deal because he makes good swing decisions with some sneaky pop. He's a solid defender but probably not winning any Gold Gloves. He has all the looks of a dependable utility guy who has a couple eye-opening runs when given consistent starts.

Chivilli was one of the youngest players getting consistent time at the MLB level last season. After a mediocre start to his career and a lost year to the pandemic, Chivilli has raced through the minors in the bullpen putting up strong numbers along the way before truly breaking at AA in 2024 and held his own in MLB. He's a fun, dynamic young arm, but will need his MLB K totals to match his MiLB totals to reach his back of the bullpen ceiling.

BlueJays traded Tyler Freeman, Elmer 21-Rodriguez-Cruz to Yankees for John Schreiber, Brennan 0-Bernardino

We've been circling something like this for a little while now and finally found a good fit. Schreiber is a very good pen arm. Bernardino is another very good pen arm. Dave's bullpen took a really nice jump forward.

ERC has a big arrow up right now. He's put up excellent numbers everywhere he's been since being one of the youngest draftees in the 2021 class. The biggest knock on him had been velocity and control. While the control will need to take a jump to reach his mid-rotation ceiling, he got the velocity boost people were hoping for in 2024, as his top end fastball jumped from 94 to 99 and all his secondaries jumped in accordance. And he's a Yankee now.

Freeman was a pretty consensus top 100 prospect for three straight years before exhausting his eligibility. He added CF to his repertoire in 2024 and love his versatility all around the dirt. He continues to crush AAA pitching. The problem is that we're almost 640 ab's into his MLB career and he's been pretty awful at the highest level. He's still just 25 and 2024 was the first season he wasn't jerked around. He'll continue to get chances and has first division starter upside...but at some point he does have to hit.
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Re: Trades

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Royals traded Angel 20-Genao to Yankees for Reese Olson, Franco 21-Aleman

Aleman is a beast. He's tore up the minors and is on his way to the back of a bullpen if he can stay healthy. Olson was clearly the get here. He's still young, and while he had his struggles in the MiLB and staying healthy, he's been awesome at the MLB level. 2025 will be a huge season for Olson to see if he can keep walking the line with his stuff now that there's a full season book on him AND if he can stay healthy. If he accomplishes both of those, this will be a really tough deal for me to win.

But I love the return. Genao impacts the ball from both sides of the plate and has hit at every level...while being young at every level. He can play short, but also has experience at 2b & 3b where he could be plus at both. There's a chance he starts this season at AA at 21. If he continues hitting and grows into some more power (he's increased his power every time he's repeated a level), he has a chance to be really special.
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Yankees traded Byron Buxton, Michael Conforto, Bailey Ober to Phillies for Jasson 0-Dominguez, Luis 21-Baez, Angel 23-Feliz, Walter 0-Pennington

Buxton is really, tremendously good when he is a on the field. Still a plus outfielder with thunder in his bat, but last season was the 2nd most games he's ever played in a season...and it was just 102. Ober is an above average starting pitcher who minimizes putting people on base while still striking out a batter an inning...it's just that when people hit him, they tend to hit him pretty hard. Conforto is a very solid 3rd piece. He's not the slugger he was back in the day, but he's still a solid platoon piece and bench bat.

Pennington is a fun, young lefty reliever. He ripped through the minors last season and held his own at the MLB level before getting a pretty mediocre sim. Feliz is an arrow up prospect. He's a sure-handed shortstop with strong exit velocities and makes good swing decisions...and still projectable. He's got a long way to go, but he's off to a great start. Baez if a solid fielder who crushes the baseball...when he hits it. He's still young with tremendous power and he's powered his way to AA at 20 years old...but he swings and misses a lot. Like a lot, a lot. A full year of AA is going to be a massive test for him, and you have to think he's either a helium prospect or a non-prospect by the end of this season. The get was clearly Dominguez, though. The Martian came back from a long-term injury and ripped back through the minors before struggling back at the MLB level. He's still one of the top prospects in baseball with massive upside and he'll have a clear runway at 22 years old for a full-time job in the Yankees 2025 lineup.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Christian Yelich, Luis A. Garcia to Royals for Luis 19-Perales, DJ 0-Herz

Yelich, for all his injury flaws, is an amazing baseball player who keeps hitting. The sim isn't as impressed, but he's still a well above average contributor. Garcia is an old-timer who got a good sim and got signed, so he'll be a positive impact for KC's bullpen.

Book a flight on Avelo (partner for one of my partners) and didn't realize they didn't have internet, so decided to run a bunch of sim's off my new team.
Realize there's a difference between '24 & '25, but came to realize there's not a ton of difference in results on the margins of my team, so the goal was to move the older players on the margins to give me more flexibility around my younger core. This is another deal that accomplishes that goal.

Perales was on a meteoric rise this season, featuring some of the best stuff in the minors, when he had to get TJ in June. While there's never certainty with TJ, he's young enough with enough arm talent to make a full recovery. Herz is also an incredibly interesting arm I've asked about multiple times. He was awesome in his MiLB career, featuring tremendous run prevention and high K rates. His issue has always been walks & homers, and the combo of walking people & giving up bombs can be problematic, but there's a very real mid-rotation arm here if can keep his K rates at their current levels while shaving even just a bb/9 off his stats...and he's still just 24 and has plenty of time.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Gary Sanchez, LaMonte Wade to BlueJays for Erik 0-Miller, Jordan 23-Sanchez

Probably not a trade I'll end up winning, but doesn't change my team a ton. Wade is an excellent on-base 1b who'll add cof more this year, but the power will still be lacking. Kayfus has a similar sim for me. Sanchez has excellent power and a solid sim, but Ruiz/Ramirez will probably combine to be just as solid. All in, I move two players I could lose...but probably will outstrip the return I get.

Miller got a really good sim that can play as a starter or reliever (105 era+ with 8 starts, 2.66 sim era as a reliever). He just turned 27 and is another young, talented arm to add to the back of my bullpen. Jordan Sanchez is a '23 who has massive raw power and ripped up the DSL (as he should have) at 18. His bb & k rates were fine and his exit velos were very interesting. He's a pick to click in quite a few places, but he has to hit better pitching when he moves stateside. He's most likely flying up the Orioles lists or off my team by the time '26 starts.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Kerry Carpenter, Angel 23-Feliz, Jordan 23-Sanchez to Astros for Jesus 21-Baez, Christian 0-Scott, Trevor 23-Harrison

Hope Sanchez didn't unpack his bags. He's a really fun, young power prospect. Feliz is similar in an mif role. Both have some helium and good upside, but are both a long way away. Carpenter was clearly the get for Ty. He's young and absolutely mashes lefties. It'll be interesting to see how his defensive metrics play out, but the guy can flat out hit.

Scott flew all the way up prospect charts and into the Mets rotation before TJ hit. He should probably be back by the end of this season, and he still has #2/#3 starter upside if he can return to form, post surgery. Harrison is a high helium prospect who is now on most prospect lists after a tremendous season in A ball for a young prospect. There's a lot of development to go, but he's an incredibly talented arm. Baez is an analytical beast. He's flown up prospect charts this season, making some top 100 lists, and probably would have been on more if not for a late season knee injury. If he can stay on the field and keep his swing and miss at even just passable, he's a high-end, impact MLB bat.
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Re: Trades

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Phillies traded Jud 22-Fabian, T.J. 22-Brock to Yankees for JoJo Romero, Daniel Schneemann

Romero is an excellent reliever. He'd been getting MLB run since 2020, but truly broke through in 2023 and was outstanding in 2024. He'll be a big part of the Cards bullpen for a while. Schneemann is a super valuable utility man who just probably won't hit enough to see any regular time.

Brock is an electric relief arm who only got a decent SIM, not a great one. Bully for me. Fabian is intriguing. He's already a +8 def in the SIM and he has a ton of raw power. Every time he repeats a level he gets significantly better, too. The problem is that he swings and misses...all the time. He still has a tremendously high ceiling...but a 24 year old who struck out almost half his time in AAA is running out of time...for sure. He's still a tremendously fun bet in an excellent developmental organization.
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Yankees traded Joe Musgrove, Zach 22-Maxwell to Marlins for Curtis Mead

Musgrove will miss this season for TJ, which is a shame because he got a hell of a SIM. Even though he'll be a bit older, he should still solidly be a mid-rotation SIM starter and he's a mentality monster and I'd be shocked if he wasn't back stronger than ever. Maxwell is a fire-balling relief prospect who'll be a lot of fun to track...so long as he can throw some strikes a bit more consistently.

Been around a minute and I'm very slow to fall in love with spring training stories. Last one I truly bought into was JD Martinez and it worked out very well. And I've been tracking Mead since I moved him. Here's a 'why buy into it' timeline:

Early off-season - Spent too much time focused on improving defense last year, simply stagnated offensively.
Brett's Spidey Sense - Sounds like an excuse, but his defense was improved. Not on board.

Training camp opens - His manager Kevin Cash - He's put on 20 lbs., he's transformed himself. Never seen anything like it.
Brett's Spidey Sense - Hrmph. Well that's pretty interesting before a ball is even pitched. Not yet...but getting there.

Week, 12 ab's into training camp & Nils makes offer - 10-12, driving the ball, looking good.
Brett's Spidey Sense - Fuck it, I'm in.

I'm sure I'll regret it...but he's always been a guy I want to believe in.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded DJ 0-Herz, 2024 Draft Pick 138 to BlueJays for Nolan Jones

Herz is a really fun lefty who I targeted and quite like. Pick 138 exists and is a thing.

Jones was an emerging middle of the order threat two years ago seemingly making good on his prospect status. Then he sucked last year and has gone 0 for the spring. His destruction of AAA and still solid SIM retain some hope…and I have few COF options and many SP’s…but this is one I could regret pretty quickly.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Nathan Lukes, Cole Sands, Jack 21-Neely to BlueJays for Luis 21-Guerrero, Jedixson 21-Paez, Michael 23-Forret

This trade took quite a bit of a day. Sands is the big loss. He's a hell of a reliever. Neely is also a solid young relief prospect who may break camp. Lukes is a phenomenal sim resource for his fielding and his solid bat.

Guerrero is a big-time relief prospect with high octane stuff, just challenges because of a youth leg injury. Forret was a 14th round pick in the '23 draft who has screamed up prospect charts with a mature portfolio of pitches. Lot of belief he's at least a back-end starter with a small window for mid-rotation. Paez was a big get. Fangraphs had him as a top 100 prospect and he has command and control with plus stuff. It's an intriguing profile for a young pitcher, but he'll have to prove it at every level. But so far...so good.
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Re: Trades

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Yankees traded Erik 0-Miller, Spencer Steer, Colin 23-Houck, Ethan 23-Pecko to BlueJays for Ryan Mountcastle, Luis 0-Ortiz, Teddy 23-McGraw, Alirio 23-Ferrebus

Miller is an excellent, young reliever who got a very solid SIM with some starting potential. Good talent, but he's a full-time reliever after this year. Steer is a nice player who has had some spring injuries and is one of those players who genuinely needs some consistency, but is versatile and swings a heavy stick. Pecko is a pop-up Orioles prospect I created this off-season who probably has back-end upside, but the SIM already appreciates. Houck was a former first rounder/waiver wire pick up who'll have some upside if he can ever hit a pitched ball again.

Mountcastle adds thump to the middle of my order and gives me a nice platoon for Kayfus long-term. He's also got a decent SIM and could just as easily be traded by me this year. Ortiz is a young swing arm the Indians are stretching out this year with a focus on using his stuff to strike out more batters. He was excellent in 2024, but his stuff never truly equated to K's. The Indians are having him focus there with mixed results this spring. No matter what, he's a nice rotation piece for the near future. Ferrebus is an incredibly fun, young bat with a catcher .345 MiLB ba and excellent k/bb rates. He has the ability to stay behind the plate, but only if the defense keeps pace with the bat...because, if he can start elevating, the bat can be special. And thinking of special, hello Teddy McGraw! Some of the absolute best pure stuff in the minors with 2 TJ's and assorted other arm troubles in his recent past. But...when he's on the mound...woof. The Mariners are still focused on stretching him out, but even if he can't do that, he's got easy closer stuff. It's just a matter of how long the arm will last.
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