Prospect lists -- what are they good for? Absolutely Nothing

Guardians · Post by **Guardians** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 12:55 pm

Some of this discussion started on a Danny post, but seeing all the completely different rankings come out lately, I wanted to start a thread here to get thoughts from people who probably care about these lists more than most humans.

I feel like even 3-4 years ago, prospect lists were more consistent in terms of where guys got ranked. Now, it feels to me that some list players way higher or way lower just to try to be different. Maybe it's about web clicks. I remember 3-4 years ago those prospect lists being gold for a player's value. If you were trying to trade a guy, being a BA top 10 prospect meant a lot. Now (maybe it's just me), it doesn't mean as much.

I maybe was naive or just didn't think about it, but it was refreshing that Kiley McDaniel when he was at Fangraphs pretty openly stated that scouts/team officials would ask him to rank guys higher and he sought their feedback to make sure he was on point. I guess that makes sense from a team perspective...helps them sell a player at the trade deadline. But it also gave him additional sources for his material. Maybe that's shady, but I don't count BP/BA/Sickels/FG/MLB/ESPN as journalists (I honestly don't count most national news journalists as journalists anymore anyway.

I just thought it would be a good topic of conversation for the league and I welcome your thoughts. Do you still highly value prospect lists? Only certain writers/sites? Do they seem better or worse than in past years?

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:16 pm

Prospect lists are definitely still important for gauging value. Maybe not for all of us, but I still use them in that fashion. It's easier when you have X player for sale and you can say "looking for a top 50-100 type prospect."

You look at a guy like Appel (sorry I am using your guy) and he's really struggled since being drafted yet all these prospect lists have him in the 60's. That certainly adds value to him in my opinion and keeps him relevant/intriguing. I know the #1 overall pick tag keeps him relevant/intriguing, but having him included these lists done by the prospect "experts" certainly helps keep his value up. A lot of these guys actually get to watch him pitch while most of us don't have the luxury, so they see the stuff is there.

They are also a good read, even if you don't put much (or any) stock into them. I love the (kind of) in depth analysis they give us on Top 10 lists, and I like how Law explains why he puts guys where he does. I was looking over Law's list again today and found it really odd he had Kevin Newman at #23, but at least he gave his reasoning. Maybe that ranking doesn't increase Newman's value (maybe it does) but it sure made me look into Kevin Newman more than I would've prior to his ranking.

I just think these lists are necessary for us baseball nerds that participate in leagues like this. Alex Reyes is another good example. Just looking at his numbers you see a guy that might walk 150 batters over 200 innings. But having these lists who have him a top 10 prospect along with scouting reports lead us to believe he will figure it out and be an ace by 2017 (for IBC sake hopefully not, suck it JP).

Rockies · Post by **Rockies** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:34 pm

I think you need to pick your sources and then trust the lists a bit. Yes they're still important in context. But I think the actual scouting reports are more important than a ranking. I don't think MLB in real life gives 1 fuck about where a guy is ranked. They will go with what their own scout's evaluations about a player or other team's player - not what some ranking publication says. So I don't get the Kiley McDaniel line.. I just don't buy into the fact that a team tells a ranking publication to rank such and such a guy higher.

For us, its important though. Its just a matter of figuring out which publications to lean on. For me thats still Baseball America, though I hit up Z every once in a while for stuff from BP.

Keith Law IMO is garbage, as I said.. Sickels isn't good, but his community isn't bad and I'll go read there to read what other fan's are talking about. Other than that, I'm trying to dig deeper into fan blogs for tidbits on some of the more obscure guys. Jesus Tinoco is a guy like that for me - he doesn't get rated highly on top 10 lists last year, or this year for that matter - but if you go read some of the scouting analysis on him and take into account the helium of his year last year.. well he's a kid to dream on a bit.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:42 pm

Phillies wrote:Prospect lists are definitely still important for gauging value. Maybe not for all of us, but I still use them in that fashion. It's easier when you have X player for sale and you can say "looking for a top 50-100 type prospect."

You look at a guy like Appel (sorry I am using your guy) and he's really struggled since being drafted yet all these prospect lists have him in the 60's. That certainly adds value to him in my opinion and keeps him relevant/intriguing. I know the #1 overall pick tag keeps him relevant/intriguing, but having him included these lists done by the prospect "experts" certainly helps keep his value up. A lot of these guys actually get to watch him pitch while most of us don't have the luxury, so they see the stuff is there.

They are also a good read, even if you don't put much (or any) stock into them. I love the (kind of) in depth analysis they give us on Top 10 lists, and I like how Law explains why he puts guys where he does. I was looking over Law's list again today and found it really odd he had Kevin Newman at #23, but at least he gave his reasoning. Maybe that ranking doesn't increase Newman's value (maybe it does) but it sure made me look into Kevin Newman more than I would've prior to his ranking.

I just think these lists are necessary for us baseball nerds that participate in leagues like this. Alex Reyes is another good example. Just looking at his numbers you see a guy that might walk 150 batters over 200 innings. But having these lists who have him a top 10 prospect along with scouting reports lead us to believe he will figure it out and be an ace by 2017 (for IBC sake hopefully not, suck it JP).

He and Martinez will win Cy Youngs in the next 5-6 years, book it.

Cardinals · Post by **Cardinals** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:47 pm

But yeah, the lists at least lets you gauge industry value and perception, which translates to us. To me, scouting reports are much more useful than lists and for the most part, the lists are pretty similar, especially at the top. It's when you get to Tier 2 and below on Top 100s that you start to see some difference of opinion, which makes sense.

Marlins · Post by **Marlins** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:20 pm

Prospect lists are lists of lottery tickets. Its a matter of expected value (potential payout times odds of hitting the payout). Prospects a little different in that there are so many levels in between the simple win or lose, but no matter what its all a crap shoot. I hate prospects. I should have rebuilt with old vets none of you guys want instead...

Phillies · Post by **Phillies** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 4:47 pm

Athletics wrote:Prospect lists are lists of lottery tickets. Its a matter of expected value (potential payout times odds of hitting the payout). Prospects a little different in that there are so many levels in between the simple win or lose, but no matter what its all a crap shoot. I hate prospects. I should have rebuilt with old vets none of you guys want instead...

I have plenty of old vets if you want them...

Athletics · Post by **Athletics** » Fri Feb 12, 2016 9:22 pm

Athletics wrote:Prospect lists are lists of lottery tickets. Its a matter of expected value (potential payout times odds of hitting the payout). Prospects a little different in that there are so many levels in between the simple win or lose, but no matter what its all a crap shoot. I hate prospects. I should have rebuilt with old vets none of you guys want instead...

It is a love hate thing with Prospects...you love them (Crawford and Meadows) or you hate them (Cowart and Hawkins), either way, after enough time you basically are stuck in bed with them, sink or swim (Bundy).

Orioles · Post by **Orioles** » Tue Feb 16, 2016 5:24 pm

For me the end-of-season lists themselves mostly help by giving an idea how other people value my guys for trade purposes. BA, imo, is the best at both obtaining and interpreting scouting information. Since I don't have time to watch enough video of everyone I hear about to make a call on them, half of prospecting for me is knowing what to look for in scouting reports, so I keep a closer eye on BA than any other outlet. BP isn't terrible I guess.

However, I agree that being a BA Top-100 guy doesn't have the value in IBC it once did.

Reyes is going to be an absolute beast, and trading him will haunt me for years. One of those guys that, at his peak, will make you say "wow" after he throws a real filthy heater, or buckles someone's knees with his curve. I already regret dealing him. Argh.

Brewers · Post by **Brewers** » Thu Feb 18, 2016 2:15 pm

Wait. Kevin Newman is ranked #23 overall on someone's list? I like it alot. Law is a genius!